The onset to deterioration

Thuglak staunchly rejects BJP's self-serving slogan, "Bharat without Congress," emphasizing that even amidst Congress' decline over the past three decades, abandoning the party is not in the nation's interest. The magazine expresses deep concern over Congress' erosion of national identity, principles, and ethos since the fracture initiated by Indira Gandhi in 1969 for familial gains. Once synonymous with nationalism, Congress lost its essence when Indira wrested control through governmental machinations, sidelining stalwarts like Kamaraj, Morarji Desai, and Nijalingappa. By aligning with Communists in the 1971 elections, Congress forfeited its distinctiveness and veered from the national mainstream, a shift lamented by Cho, Thuglak Magazine's founder. The magazine traces its inception to Congress' decline and DMK's ascendance, spurred by the 1969 split. Thuglak's stance against today's Congress and support for Modi-led BJP stem from this historical context. Congress's policy shifts in the 1980s aligned it with the Muslim League, continuing its communist-like trajectory from the 1970s, adopting liberal policies temporarily before reverting to a communist-like stance in 2024, evident in its election manifesto.

Congress deformed into Muslim League

Prior to independence, the Muslim League advocated for Muslim political reservation, asserting a separate identity. In 1932, Mahatma Gandhi's hunger strike protested the British government's support for caste-based reservations. Subsequently, in 1937, the British introduced Sharia law, fostering division between Muslims and Indians. Emboldened, the Muslim League in 1940 demanded a separate nation for Muslims, rejecting coexistence with Hindus. In stark contrast, the Congress of that era championed unity, asserting Hindus and Muslims as part of one community. However, today's Congress echoes the divisive rhetoric of the past, aligning with the Muslim League's separatist ideology. While the Congress of yesteryears opposed Muslim reservations, even endorsed by the Ambedkar-led Constituent Assembly, today's Congress pledges such reservations, marking a departure from its earlier stance. The Karnataka government's inclusion of all Muslims in the OBC category, supported by today's Congress, marks a departure from the inclusive ethos of yesteryears. The Congress of the past advocated equality among Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs, and Buddhists, with priority only for Scheduled Castes. However, today's Congress prioritizes Muslims in resource allocation, a significant shift from its earlier stance. In 1938, the Muslim League's Birpur Committee accused Congress of Hindu favoritism, fostering anti-Muslim sentiments. In 1986, Congress repealed a Supreme Court ruling in the Shabano case, succumbing to Muslim demands against Sharia law. This marked Congress's transition towards the Muslim League's ideology. Subsequently, Congress opposed legitimate Hindu demands, even the construction of a Ram Temple, resembling the Muslim League more closely. This transformation is regrettable for both the country and the Congress.

Congress disfigured into Communist

The contemporary generation may be unaware that in 1969, Indira Gandhi fractured the Congress by labeling leaders like Kamaraj, Morarji, and Nijalingappa as anti-socialist and capitalist-influenced, opposing bank nationalization. Little known is Indira's reliance on Communist counsel, influenced by Soviet Russia, to govern. In 1971, she amended the constitution, empowering the government to expropriate property without fair compensation, advocating for widespread nationalization. This led to the government's control over banks, coal mines, and insurance companies, aligning with communist principles of state intervention. Thus, the Congress transformed into a mirror image of the Communist Party, embracing government intervention across all sectors. The Congress, once a staunch opponent of Communist ideology, underwent a dramatic transformation, evolving into the very entity it opposed. In the 1970s, the same Congress that had opposed Communism orchestrated brutal crackdowns on communist movements in Telangana and Kerala, mirroring the tactics it once condemned. Indira Gandhi, even vilified revered nationalists like Kamaraj as American agents for their opposition. The collapse of Soviet Russia in 1990 spurred Narasimha Rao and Manmohan Singh to abandon socialism, embracing Western capitalist ideals. Successive governments, from Vajpayee to Manmohan Singh and now the Modi administration, have endeavored to rectify socialist economic distortions through their unique approaches, transitioning from nationalization to privatization policies. The sudden inclusion of resource redistribution in the Congress manifesto for this election signifies yet another regrettable departure from its earlier principles.

Congress reduced into a caste-based party

Congress' transformation continued. In 1989, during the Mandal movement led by VP Singh, which demanded caste-based reservations, then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi implored, "Don't divide the country on caste lines." Engulfed in the Bofors scandal, he failed to prevent the movement, leading to VP Singh's victory and the rise of OBC parties in northern states, contributing to Congress's decline. Simultaneously, the Ram Temple movement eroded Congress's Hindu support, weakening the party on both fronts. Losing Hindu support due to the Ram Temple issue and OBC support due to the Mandal movement, Congress adopted a Muslim League-like stance, seeking Muslim support at any cost. This strategy helped Congress win power in 2004, ruling for a decade. However, rampant corruption and appeasement politics led to BJP's resurgence, culminating in Modi's significant victory in 2014. Facing defeat again in the 2019 elections and losing traction with radical Muslim appeasement politics, Congress began advocating for a caste census to regain OBC votes. This shift marked an unfortunate departure from the principles of the earlier Congress, particularly under Rajiv Gandhi's leadership.

BJP became the then Congress

The BJP began to fill the void left by Congress, which had shifted towards the ideologies of the Muslim League, Communists, and Mandal parties, moving away from its nationalistic roots. In 1949, Raghava Das, a Congress MLA from Ayodhya, initiated the Ramjanma Bhoomi Rescue Movement. A Gandhian, he was affectionately called "Baba" Raghava Das by Mahatma Gandhi. When Congress, under Nehru's influence, abandoned the Ram temple cause, the BJP seized the opportunity, fully integrating the concept of Ram Rajya—celebrated by Gandhi—into the Ram Temple movement. The BJP revived symbols like Vande Mataram and Bharat Mata Ki Jai, which Congress had sidelined for vote-bank politics, embracing them as national icons. In this way, the BJP took on the mantle of the pre-independence Congress, championing the causes and symbols that Congress once celebrated but later rejected as religious. Today, Congress criticizes the BJP similarly to how the Muslim League once bashed Congress, labeling the BJP a Hindu party and itself anti-Muslim. How depraved is the transition?

Congress’ full toss & Modi’s sixers

That's why Modi easily likens today's Congress to the Muslim League. Modi hits Rahul, Sam Pitroda, and other Congress leaders for sixes on their stances regarding Muslim appeasement, caste, and communist politics. When they promise to share national resources, Modi counters by questioning if Muslims are the primary beneficiaries. He challenges their silence on Muslim sultans when they criticize Hindu kings for land usurpation and questions whether Muslim reservations mean OBC reservations. The list of full tosses and sixes is extensive.
In this heated election debate, both sides, including Prime Minister Modi and Rahul, have shown a lack of self-restraint. The Election Commission has issued notices to both parties following complaints of excessive rhetoric. We urge both sides to maintain self-control and conduct a respectful campaign until the election concludes.

Note to the Reader: This article originally appeared in Thuglak Tamil Weekly Magazine. It was translated in English by Shri Venkateshwaran, who is the Chief of Thuglak Digital and personal secretary to Shri S Gurumurthy, exclusively for www.gurumurthy.net.

1. Modi’s Strategic Diplomacy: He effectively challenged the belief held by developed countries that India’s democratic system was a barrier to its progress, offering a stark contrast to China’s authoritarian model. What strategies did he employ to accomplish this?
2. Majority Rule and Governance: With a commanding majority, Modi introduced a new era of bold policy-making, propelling India on an unparalleled growth path and dispelling the myth that democracy slows progress.
3. Corrective Measures: During his first term, Modi addressed the political and economic errors of the previous Congress-led decade, implementing practical solutions to deep-seated economic and societal issues.
4. Navigating Through Crisis: Amidst the global turmoil of the pandemic, Modi took decisive action to resolve age-old problems that had long divided the nation, using democratic processes.

These significant advancements were made possible by Modi’s overwhelming mandate, which established a strong majority government at the center for the first time in twenty-five years, setting the stage for these historic achievements. Let’s explore the details of this story.

Comparing Governance: China’s Autocracy and India’s Democratic Journey

“Why China flew, India just grew?” Forbes magazine (2019 highlighted the vast economic gap that emerged between India and China starting from the 1980s. By 2014, China’s economy had grown to be 3.5 times larger than India’s. The article credited China’s swift ascent to its authoritarian regime, in contrast to India’s democratic system, which is often seen as slow and cumbersome. This comparison was exemplified by the contrasting timelines of the Narmada river dam in India and the Yangtze river dam in China.

The Yangtze dam project, which resulted in the submersion of numerous cities and the displacement of over a million people, was completed in just 12 years. On the other hand, the Narmada dam project, impacting fewer people, took over six decades to complete, starting from Prime Minister Nehru’s initial groundwork. The delay was largely due to persistent opposition from groups like the Narmada Bachao Andolan (NBA), which sought legal avenues to halt progress.

The Narmada dam’s construction faced judicial roadblocks, with the Supreme Court granting incremental height clearances over the years, culminating in a height of 139 meters by 2019. Now, the Narmada dam stands as a symbol of significant development across several Indian states. Forbes’ analysis brought to light the perception that authoritarian regimes can expedite progress, while democratic systems like India’s are seen to hinder it.

This portrayal not only generated admiration for China but also contributed to a growing disdain for India internationally. Moreover, Modi’s rise to power in 2014 intensified the global skepticism towards India.

A New Dawn: Redefining Governance and Shattering Illusions - Modi’s Exemplary Leadership

The misguided belief that democracy was the root of India’s developmental challenges has been thoroughly discredited, thanks in large part to Prime Minister Modi’s insightful leadership. Reflecting on his successful governance in Gujarat, Modi recognized that India’s relative stagnation compared to China’s rapid advancement in the 1990s was not due to its democratic principles but rather the absence of a strong, decisive majority government at the national level. The political scene was chaotic, with an astonishing seven Prime Ministers in just ten years following 1989, each trying to steer the country through four general elections amidst the instability of minority or coalition governments.

Even during Prime Minister Vajpayee’s administration (1999-2004), which was noted for its effective governance, the need to appease a complex coalition of over 25 partners impeded swift decision-making. The years under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh were perceived as being hindered by an overbearing Congress leadership, which compromised governance effectiveness and diminished the government’s authority—casting a shadow over India’s political dynamism internationally.

In response to the call for significant change, the BJP elevated Modi to the national stage in 2014, driven by his proven leadership in Gujarat since 2001. Modi’s extensive campaign, which included over 700 rallies, struck a chord with the electorate, resulting in a historic single-party majority that signaled a new era of stability and robust leadership not seen in many years.

With Modi at the helm, India experienced a revival, overcoming global doubts with a series of bold reforms. Controversial yet impactful measures like demonetization and the introduction of the GST highlighted Modi’s determination to bring about fundamental changes. Notable achievements such as the creation of over 40 crore bank accounts, the construction of a similar number of toilets, the distribution of free cooking gas connections and housing to the needy, and the enrollment of 100 crore citizens for Aadhaar marked a significant shift in India’s development story, igniting national pride.

Former critics, now witnessing India’s dynamic progress under Modi’s guidance, reluctantly recognized his visionary approach. Modi’s remarkable accomplishments have challenged long-standing prejudices, prompting the international democratic community to reevaluate India’s capabilities. His unyielding spirit is emblematic of a revitalized India, proving the efficacy of decisive leadership and affirming the country’s democratic values on the world stage.

Pioneering Progress: Awakening from Dormancy

In his first term, Modi launched a campaign to correct the economic stagnation caused by the previous decade’s governance, marked by corruption. He decisively canceled the controversial 2G spectrum and coal block allocations, which were symptomatic of the crony capitalism of the time, thereby recovering substantial funds and improving India’s international reputation. He revitalized public sector banks that had been burdened by political interference and non-performing assets, enabling a surge in lending essential for economic revival.

Addressing security concerns, Modi took a firm stand against terrorism. He sanctioned surgical strikes across the border into Pakistan, sending a strong deterrent against years of cross-border terrorism. He also tackled Left-wing extremism, reaffirming his dedication to national security.

India’s strategic positioning in Doklam and Modi’s maneuvers in Kashmir, including the alliance with Mehbooba Mufti and the subsequent application of President’s Rule, set the stage for the revocation of Article 370, marking a significant step in national integration.

Modi expanded the BJP’s reach beyond its traditional bases, bringing attention and development to the long-neglected Northeast region through numerous ministerial visits and personal engagements. This effort integrated the region more fully into the national fabric, showcasing Modi’s forward-thinking leadership.

Charting New Paths: Overcoming Divides, Fostering Unity

Modi’s second term began with the formidable challenge of the Covid-19 pandemic. Under his leadership, India achieved the remarkable milestone of developing its own Covid vaccine, showcasing the country’s scientific capabilities.

While the United States faced significant losses, India’s proactive strategies limited the impact of the pandemic, earning global recognition for its effective management. Modi’s governance shone on the international stage with a vaccination campaign that set new records.

Navigating geopolitical complexities, Modi maintained India’s sovereignty and independence during the Ukraine conflict, securing essential resources despite international sanctions.

The abrogation of Kashmir’s special status was a bold move that ended years of proxy control by Pakistan, despite facing global criticism. Modi’s unwavering approach effectively isolated Pakistan, affirming India’s stance on the world stage.

Humanitarian Commitment: Modi’s Pledge to Inclusivity
Prime Minister Modi’s dedication to humanitarian principles is evident in his actions, such as granting citizenship to persecuted minorities, which reflects his adherence to constitutional values and marks the beginning of a more inclusive and equitable era.

The resolution of the Ram Janmabhoomi dispute, as per the Supreme Court’s decision, aligns with Modi’s vision for communal harmony and justice. The construction of the Ram Mandir, embraced by diverse societal groups, stands as a symbol of India’s cultural richness and commitment to pluralism.

In his second term, Modi’s leadership has broken through traditional limitations, setting a path of development and unity that challenges old conventions. His determination to rectify historical grievances and promote national solidarity is a testament to his steadfast dedication to India’s progress.

Deciphering Modi’s Legacy

The enduring question is how Modi managed to achieve what many thought impossible. While his personal qualities of resilience and commitment are significant, it is the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) achievement of a single-party majority that has been crucial in enabling Modi to overcome opposition and realize remarkable successes.

India’s impressive rise and expanding global presence under Modi’s guidance are rooted in the firm foundation of a strong majority government. As discussed previously, this stable governance is essential not only for India’s flourishing but also contributes positively to the international community. The upcoming elections present an opportunity for voters to renew their trust in the BJP, sustaining Modi’s forward-looking governance.

Looking ahead, we will explore the critical role of Tamil Nadu’s voters in the upcoming week, a decision that carries significant weight for the future direction of our nation.

An Alternative to the Black Money

Prior to the implementation of the Electoral Bonds Scheme, political parties, both ruling and opposition, primarily received donations in cash, synonymous with black money. The Electoral Bonds Scheme presented a viable alternative to this practice. As per information disclosed by the Election Commission, since its inception in 2018, political parties have garnered donations totalling ₹16,000 crores through electoral bonds—a significant shift towards transparent financial transactions facilitated through banks. Critics of the scheme cannot refute the fact that funds routed through banks cannot be deemed as black money. Without the Electoral Bonds Scheme, these parties would have likely received the same ₹16,000 crores in unaccounted cash, perpetuating the cycle of corruption. The anonymity guaranteed by the scheme encourages donors who eschew black money practices to contribute via bonds. However, the Supreme Court's decision has compelled some potential donors—who intended to contribute via cheques—to resort to illegal means like the Hawala method, exacerbating the inflow of black money into political coffers. It is regrettable that the Court's ruling dismantles a well-intentioned effort to stem the tide of black money in political financing.

Electoral Bonds Donation: More for BJP, Less for Opposition?

An analysis of audited political party accounts for the fiscal year 2022-23 reveals the extent of donations received through the Electoral Bonds Scheme. As per the data available in the image below notably, parties such as Trinamool Congress (TMC) has received 97.5% of its total donations through the Electoral Bonds; 86.31% by the DMK; Odisha’s Biju Janata Dal [BJD] 84%; Telangana’s Bharat Rashtriya Party [BRS] 72%; In Andhra, YSR Congress Party 69.6%; BJP 55% and Congress got 38% through EB Scheme. Surprisingly, even the parties opposed to the BJP which introduced the EB scheme got donations through Electoral Bonds instead of black money. The TMC which got 96.8% through bonds in 2021-22, got 97.5% in 2022-23, it was not a fall, instead a rise comparatively. In 2022-23, BJP received ₹1,294 crore through Bonds. Secondly BRS got ₹529 crore through bonds. The table shows that Trinamool is in 3rd place with ₹325 crore, DMK is in 4th place with ₹185 crore, Congress is in 5th place with ₹171 crore and BJD is in 6th place with ₹152 crore.

Based on the data in the court verdict, ₹16,518 crore has been donated to parties through bonds since the introduction of the EB scheme, out of which ₹6,566 crore has been given to the BJP, ₹1,123 crore to the Congress, ₹1,092 crore to the TMC, ₹775 crore to the BJD, ₹617 crore to the DMK and ₹384 crore to the BRS.

However, the apparent dominance of the BJP in bond donations as per the aforesaid numbers belies a deeper reality. The proportional analysis reveals that smaller parties like TMC, DMK, BJD, and BRS have received significant sums relative to their political presence. Let us see that in detail. 

The fact that BJP got 39.75% of the total donation from Electoral Bonds is only in appearance. TMC which is predominantly functioning only in West Bengal has only 42 parliamentary constituencies. If TMC got ₹1,092 crores, the BJP, which contested in 437 constituencies in the 2019 elections, is 10 times more the size of TMC. Only if BJP gets ₹11,362 crores via EB donation, both BJP and Trinamool can be considered as equal. It can be said that the DMK, which has 40 parliamentary seats, received ₹617 crores via bonds as an equal to the amount received by the BJP. Similar to TMC, ₹775 crore received by BJD in Odisha where there are only 21 MP constituencies, can be said is equal to BJP which contested in 437 seats, if BJP had got more than ₹16,000 crores. ₹384 crore for Telangana based BRS with 14 MP seats, is equal to nearly ₹12,000 crore against BJP which contested 437 seats. So the fact that BJP got more is just an appearance and not a reality. 

₹1,123 crore received by Congress which contested in 428 seats in 2019 elections is less only. Why did Congress get less? If the influential TMC, BJD and DMK could receive a substantial amount of donations through Bonds, like how it shows the sign of their influence, the decline in donations to the Congress will only reflect its decline. The argument that since other opposition parties are in power in the states, they get more from Bonds than the Congress is also wrong. Because those parties are in power in their respective states. From 2018 to 2023, Congress was in power in states like Punjab, Rajasthan, Himachal, MP, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Telangana, and even today it is in power in states like Karnataka and Telangana. There is no difference between the BJP and other opposition parties [except the Congress] in terms of funding through Bonds. Why only Congress is getting less funds from Bonds? This is because the influential state leaders in Congress keep funds in their own hands rather than giving them to the party. The seizure of hundreds of crores of rupees in cash from Congress leaders confirms it. The fact that the Congress has less donations than the BJP cannot be said to be a drawback of the Bonds scheme.

Erroneous decision

The Supreme Court's decision to nullify the Electoral Bonds Scheme rests on three main contentions: lack of transparency, violation of voters' right to information, and potential undisclosed incentives to donors. However, these objections fail to recognize the scheme's merits in mitigating black money influx and fostering financial accountability. Unlike cash transactions, electoral bonds ensure traceability and accountability, offering insights into party finances. 

The very premise of the court's decision rests on the lack of transparency within the Electoral Bonds Scheme, which serves as the cornerstone for the other objections raised against it. However, adopting a narrow perspective on the intricate dynamics of politics fails to grasp its inherent complexities. Consider, for instance, the Supreme Court's insistence on transparency across all domains. Yet, elected judges are mandated to disclose details of their assets solely to the Chief Justice, with no obligation for public disclosure. While this approach has its shortcomings, it acknowledges the existence of underlying truths. Similarly, in the case of the Electoral Bonds Scheme, the Court had a golden opportunity, indeed an imperative, to mandate revisions. It could have, indeed ‘must’ have, given directions to the State Bank of India, the issuer of bonds, to furnish details of donors to the Election Commission, thereby ensuring greater transparency and accountability.

The Court's failure to acknowledge the scheme's role in curbing cash-based transactions may inadvertently exacerbate the flow of black money into politics. By discarding a potentially rectifiable scheme, the Court has unwittingly opened the floodgates to a resurgence of black money in elections. The Court's decision to annul the Electoral Bonds Scheme represents a regressive step that jeopardizes the integrity of electoral financing. It is imperative for stakeholders to recognize the scheme's inherent benefits and explore avenues for reform rather than succumbing to a myopic view of political realities. We firmly believe that this verdict has inadvertently opened the Tsunami-gates to a resurgence of black money, reversing the progress made in curbing its influence through the Electoral Bonds Scheme.

Note to the Reader: This article originally appeared in Thuglak Tamil Weekly Magazine. It was translated in English by Shri Venkateshwaran from Thuglak Digital for www.gurumurthy.net.

In response, the Congress party issued a contrasting 'Black Paper' to counter the claims put forth by the government. However, notably absent from the Congress rebuttal is a denial of the economic turmoil prevalent in 2014 or the substantial progress achieved under the Modi regime. The Black Paper primarily revolves around allegations directed towards the Modi administration, lacking substantial counterproposals or alternative strategies.

Indubitable Verities

The Modi government's white paper boldly outlines three key facts, which the Congress's black paper neither disputes nor refutes. First and foremost, it references the acknowledgment made by the Congress government in its 2004-05 budget, praising the preceding Vajpayee government for leaving the economy in a robust state. This historical perspective lays the groundwork for understanding India's economic landscape during successive administrations. Secondly, the white paper delves into the tumultuous period of the ten-year Congress coalition rule, characterizing it as a time marred by misguided policies and rampant corruption. The dire consequences of these shortcomings led to India's economy plummeting, drawing alarming comparisons from global financial institutions, which deemed it among the "five collapsing global economies." The acknowledgment of this economic downturn underscores the gravity of the challenges inherited by subsequent administrations. This too is not denied by the Black Paper. The third salient point highlighted in the white paper pertains to the remarkable economic transformation witnessed during the ten-year tenure of the Modi regime. Despite facing formidable obstacles such as the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions like the war in Ukraine, India's economy surged from the tenth to the fifth position globally. This unprecedented growth trajectory catapulted India to the forefront of economic prowess, securing its position as the world's fastest-growing economy—a testament endorsed by international financial institutions. The Black Paper did not deny this either.

In 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said "India deserves to be called a bright spot on this otherwise dark horizon ⁽¹⁾, underscored India's significant contribution to world growth. In December 2023, The IMF's commendation underscored India's pivotal role in global economic recovery, highlighting its significant contribution to world growth, it said, “India is a Star Performer contributing a remarkable 16% share of global growth” ⁽²⁾, In September 2023, Standard and Poor's (S&P), a renowned investment rating agency, echoed the IMF's sentiment by lauding India's robust economic growth. It said “India’s stellar economic trajectory alongside strong forecasts for some Southeast Asian countries will be important drivers for global growth” ⁽³⁾,. S&P highlighted India's pivotal role in driving global economic dynamics, a stark contrast to the skepticism and ridicule India faced before Prime Minister Modi assumed office. Prime Minister Modi's transformative economic policies have been instrumental in elevating India's stature on the world stage. His visionary leadership and unwavering commitment to economic development have propelled India to unprecedented heights, making him a beacon of inspiration and a symbol of progress globally. It is noteworthy that these commendations from international organizations stand in stark contrast to the previous skepticism directed towards India. None of these are either countered in the Black Paper.

From Nadir to Zenith

Looking back at the economic landscape of India in 2014 unveils a stark reality that underscores the monumental growth witnessed under the leadership of the Modi regime. The transformation has not only been substantial but also verges on the miraculous considering the challenges that plagued the economy at the outset. In 2014, India's economic trajectory was marred by stagnation, fueled by rampant spending, budgetary disarray, and soaring inflation rates. The Congress-led government found itself mired in a state of paralysis, crippled by rampant corruption scandals and a glaring inability to make decisive actions. Multinational corporations faced bankruptcy, while banks grappled with mounting non-performing assets, rendering them unable to facilitate loans vital for economic expansion. To exacerbate matters, the dearth of foreign exchange forced the government to resort to short-term foreign loans at exorbitant interest rates, exacerbating the downward spiral of the economy. The White Paper meticulously delineates these challenges, providing a comprehensive account of the economic abyss that India found itself in during that period. Importantly, the Black Paper fails to offer any substantive rebuttal or response to these issues raised in the White Paper, further underscoring the gravity of the economic predicament faced by the nation. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman aptly articulated that it has taken a decade for India to emerge from the depths of despair. Despite the precipitous Economic Nadir, India has ascended to unparalleled Zenith of development today, a testament to the resilience and resolve of its people and the transformative policies enacted under the stewardship of the Modi government.

Empirical Statistics

The statistics presented in the White Paper offer a compelling narrative of India's economic trajectory across different administrations. As the Vajpayee regime drew to a close in 2003-2004, inflation, previously at 2.1 percent, surged to 12.3 percent under the Congress regime by 2013.

Throughout the Congress tenure from 2009-2014, the average inflation rate peaked at 10.4%, whereas under the ten-year Modi regime, it plummeted to 5.5%. Notably, a significant trend emerges when analyzing the periods of Congress and BJP governance: prices surged during Congress rule and remained relatively subdued under BJP administration, warranting further scrutiny by the Congress party.

During the Congress rule from 1991-96, India faced an economic crisis. Conversely, the 1998-2004 BJP regime witnessed the Pokhran nuclear bomb test, leading to global economic and trade sanctions, posing significant economic challenges. Similarly, the 2004-2014 Congress era coincided with the global economic crisis of 2008. Despite encountering crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war during 2014-24, the Modi government effectively managed inflation, boosted growth, and made substantial strides in employment generation. Unemployment rates, which stood at 6.1% in 2017-18, have nearly halved to 3.2% by 2022-23 under the Modi government's tenure. 

The rise in non-performing assets (NPAs) from 4.5% in 2009 to over 10% in 2014 under the Congress coalition government underscored the financial challenges inherited by the Modi administration. Renowned economist Raghuram Rajan, who embarked on the Bharat Jodo Yatra with Rahul Gandhi, highlighted the debilitating effects of bad loans on the banking sector. 

A noteworthy statistical revelation lies in the increase of investment capital expenditure, rising from 16 percent during the Congress coalition government to an impressive 28 percent under the Modi government. This significant surge reflects the government's commitment to driving economic growth and development through strategic investments and initiatives.

The proactive measures undertaken by the Modi government, including substantial investments in banks and initiatives like universal bank account access, demonetization, and GST implementation, played pivotal roles in stabilizing the economy. These reforms facilitated a crackdown on corruption and tax evasion, fostering economic development and unleashing unprecedented growth. Media coverage extensively highlighted these statistics and their implications, which remain undisputed even in the Black Paper.

In essence, the multifaceted efforts of the Modi government, coupled with a stable banking sector, have underpinned India's economic resurgence and paved the way for transformative development projects unseen before in the nation's history. The statistics, as revealed in the White Paper and corroborated by media reports, underscore the remarkable journey of India's economic stabilization and growth under the Modi administration.

“Kaala Teeka” - Modi

Even preceding the release of the Modi government's white paper, the Congress unveiled its black paper. However, while the white paper was readily accessible on the government website, the black paper remained conspicuously absent. Media outlets disseminated the purported content of the Black Paper, with The Wire, a platform reportedly aligned with the Congress, claiming that it detailed a decade of economic ruin, escalating unemployment, agricultural degradation, rising crimes against women, and injustices against minorities and marginalized communities. What does this signify? Essentially, the Black Paper echoes the familiar criticisms that the Congress has levied against Modi's administration. It appears to be yet another endeavour to cast aspersions on Modi's governance without substantiated evidence, as has been the norm. In jest, Modi remarked that the Black Paper submitted by the Congress seemed more like a "Kaala Teeka" or a black mark on his government, highlighting the facetiousness of the situation. 

Decade of Malfeasance Vs. Decade of Probity

The white paper meticulously cataloged a series of scandals that marred the 10-year Congress rule, including the infamous Coal Scam, Commonwealth Games Scam, 2G Scam, Saradha Group financial scandal, Devas-Antrix Scam, Embraer Aircraft Scam, Hawk Airlines Scam, INX media scandal, AgustaWestland helicopter scandal, and Adarsh housing debacle. These scandals incurred massive losses, amounting to lakhs of crores of rupees. In stark contrast, the 10-year tenure of the BJP, as portrayed in the white paper, stands out as a beacon of integrity and principled governance. The document vividly highlights the stark disparity between the two periods, depicting one as a pinnacle of virtue and the other as a nadir of moral degradation. Interestingly, the Black Paper, as reported by The Wire ⁽⁴⁾, appears conspicuously devoid of any substantive allegations of malfeasance against the BJP. While the Congress finds itself embroiled in a mire of corruption, it fails to level even a single accusation against its political adversary. The irony is palpable: entrenched in corruption, the Congress lacks the moral high ground to impugn the BJP. One might wonder if the Congress would have been better served by refraining from producing the Black Paper altogether. In the grand narrative of the White-Black Paper debate, Prime Minister Modi's astute analogy rings true: the people of this nation would also consider this Black Paper, as a 'Kaala Teeka' cast by the Congress upon the BJP.

Sources:

⁽¹⁾ Economic Times 14.10.2022
⁽²⁾ Economic Times 19.12.2023
⁽³⁾ https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/08/indias-massive-expansion-to-be-a -driver-of-global-growth-sp-global.html
⁽⁴⁾ https://thewire.in/politics/congress-releases- black-paper-on-modi-governments-failures

Note to the Reader: This article originally appeared in Thuglak Tamil Weekly Magazine. It was translated in English by Shri Venkateshwaran from Thuglak Digital for www.gurumurthy.net.

Budget 2024-25

The Interim Budget 2024-25 has no new taxes, no new schemes, no concessions, and no expenditure. Under the ongoing Prime Minister's Housing Scheme, 3 crore houses has been built. Saying that 2 crore more houses will be built in the next 5 years, Rs. 80,600 crores has been earmarked, which is Rs.1000 crores more when compared with current year. Rs 15 lakh crore - an increase of Rs 2.3 lakh crore - has been earmarked for investments. Political analysts say the fact that the Modi government did not make any concessions to farmers unlike 2019-20 budget reflects BJP's confidence that Modi will win the next election.

10-year Achievement

Interim Budget 2024-25 turned out to be a rare opportunity for BJP to highlight it’s 10-year achievements to the people. BJP fully used this opportunity to capture and showcase the picture of how great the achievements of this government are, compared not only to the 10-year (2004-14) rule of the Congress, but also the entire 64-year rule of all parties since 1950.
For example, the IITs were established in the 64 years from 1950 to 2014 were 16, Modi’s regime established 7; 7 AIIMS Hospitals btween 1950-64, 15 under Modi regime; 723 universities established till 2014, 390 were established under Modi regime; 74 airports since 1950-2014, whopping new 74 more airports were established in Modi regime.
In other words, BJP has said that Modi has achieved more in 10 years than what all the governments had achieved in 64 years. Besides, compared to the 10-year Congress rule, government revenue has grown more or less 3 times under the Modi regime, the number of various poor sections has reduced from 29% in 2014 to 11.3% and 25 crore people have come out of vapoverty, the finance minister said.
Government investment as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) increased from 4% in 2014 to 18% in 2022-23; The number of women studying higher education increased by 28% and the number of women studying science and technology education increased by 43%; The number of women involved in work and business also increased by 50%; 43 crore people Rs. 22.5 Lakh Crore Mudra Loans - 30 Crores of which are Women; Housing for 3 crore homeless people - 70% of whom are women; Free cooking gas for 10 crore households; toilets for 11 crore households; Under the Ujala scheme, 38 crore LED bulbs for households, LED bulbs consume lesser electricity; 1.3 crore LED tubes for streets; Skill development training for 1.4 crore young men and women; 83 lakh loans to one crore women through SHGs; Credit to 78 lakh street traders; Rs. 2.81 lakh crore DBT to 11.8 crore farmers by opening bank accounts to 50 crore unbanked people; Rs. 2.7 lakh crore disbursement to other beneficiaries; Unemployment has come down from 6.1% to 3.2% post-corona - Nirmala listed the Modi government's monumental achievements. Media Debate on Budget became a campaign about BJP’s achievement. India, which was ranked 10th in the world economy in 2014, has progressed past Brazil, Britain, France, Canada, and Italy in 10 years and has now reached the 5th position due to the country's tremendous growth under the Modi regime. In annual growth numbers for 20 years, India has overtaken China as the world's number one.
India has become a country respected by everyone in the world, to be celebrated as the engine of global development by organizations like the IMF and the World Bank, which once looked down on us.
The famous American Morning Consult research organization has been saying for past five years and also now that Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi is the most popular among the 22 most important world leaders. More the opposition parties vilify him, he is becoming most popular. They should realize that this is due to his tireless work and due to the great achievements of his government. It result in good for them and good for the country.

Note to the Reader: This article originally appeared in Thuglak Tamil Weekly Magazine. It was translated in English by Shri Venkateshwaran from Thuglak Digital for www.gurumurthy.net.

By S Gurumurthy

There are several firsts about Budget 2022-23. The first of the firsts is that this is the only Budget in recent memory when the finance minister’s speech was not disturbed even once. The usual shoutings for this or that segment, or for states were absent. Second, this is the first pre-election Budget that has completely avoided populist lure for votes in an election season. Third, Rahul Gandhi ran into the car unusually without saying a word against the Budget, and an hour later sent an accusatory tweet that his advisers had prepared. Fourth, expecting it to contain huge freebies for poll-bound states, the Opposition, which had kept narratives ready to attack the Budget as a vote-catching exercise, was shocked by the contrast of cuts in freebies like in MGNREGA, food subsidy, fertiliser subsidy; that forced it to rush to change its narrative to charge the Budget as anti-poor. Fifth, the Budget speech, framed in a language entirely different from that the Opposition is accustomed to, also seems to have flummoxed the Opposition into silence. Sixth, the digitally read budget also digitally integrates the nation from villages to farming to post offices to finance to infrastructure to land registrations, to tax collections to railways, to roadways, to waterways to logistics to currency – into the largest single national computer. Seventh, digital currency that will be introduced by the RBI is yet another first. Eighth, the annual exercise of Budget has been psychologically transformed into the centenary Budget of Independent India. This made it difficult for the Opposition to attack the Budget the way it would trash a normal Budget. An economist with psychological background, not a pure economist, seems to have strategised the Budget narrative.

People’s spending hesitancy
An important point that seems to have shaped the Budget philosophy and narrative is the rising household financial savings. Pre-Budget data showed that household financial savings for 2021 is up by over Rs 7 lakh crore, but the household debt is up by just Rs 18,000 crore. Even in the 45 crore-plus marginalised people’s banks accounts in the Jan-Dhan Yojana, the deposits went up by Rs 39,000 crore in just nine months from April 2021 to January 2022. The rising cash savings clearly indicated people’s spending hesitancy, which is likely to last till the pandemic is over. This persuaded the finance minister not to go against their current psychology by efforts like tax and interest cuts, to force them to spend. For, even if she put money in people’s pockets, they may not spend. This fundamental point is not much noticed in the Budget debate. It seems to have forced the finance minister to opt for more public spending.

Public spending instead 
With the economy having taken a drubbing in 2020-21 and just beginning to look up in 2021-22 on the income side of the Budget, obviously the finance minister did not want to take high risks on the revenue expenditure side. So, she rightly opted for government-led demand to push the economy. With huge private savings available to back public spending, the finance minister decided to up the capital spend by 34% to lift the economy, which would mean letting some Rs 2 lakh crore to create demand for goods as productive money in people’s hands. Indeed a sensible decision in the backdrop of retail inflation levels beyond comfort. On top of the capital spend, the finance minister extended the credit guarantees for MSMEs by one more year to ensure that they do not suffer for want of capital for business. The FM focused more on putting productive money into the system than giving unproductive freebies to the people.

Prudent yet adequate
The spendings provided in the Budget are prudent but adequate. Public capital spend Rs 7.5 lakh crore, housing allocation Rs 48,000 crore, interest-free loan to state government for infra spend Rs 1,00,000 crore, rural jobs guarantee Rs 78,000crore, Jal Jeevan Mission Rs 60,000 crore – to mention some significant items – are all cash driven whose velocity is bound to lift the economy. The FM rightly preferred to be prudent considering that in uncertain times the government would need elbow room to provide for any crisis arising out of another Covid wave – like it happened in 2020-21 – when the rural employment guarantee budget almost tripled and provision for free ration hit the roof. 

Avoiding risky populism 
The FM clearly avoided risks that could have had a spiralling adverse effect. Had she risked more inflation and gone populist she could have hiked the MGNREGA outlay, food subsidy and fertiliser subsidy by some Rs 50,000 crore to put money into people’s hands to win acclaim and get votes, and cut the capital allocation by like amount. But that would hurt the economy, not help the people ultimately. Also the Modi government should be complimented for not going for freebies particularly when elections are being fiercely fought in the most populous Uttar Pradesh, results of which can have adverse impact on the credibility of the Modi government and its winnability in 2024. It would have required enormous political will for Modi to resist the temptation of using Budget for votes.

Shocking deficit in debate 
A shocking deficit in the ongoing national Budget discourse is the national security aspect absent in it. Conventionally, Budget debates are dominated by economy, trade, finance, business and politics. But despite the nation facing the possibility of two-front wars from early 2020, participants in the Budget debates do not seem to have been conscious of it. There is thus no serious discussion about the adequacy of the allocation for defence. While critics of the Budget shed tears for the salaried class, middle class, farmers and the poor, none of them has even cared to say a word about whether the defence allocation should be more or less. There has been a substantial rise in defence spending in three years, from Rs 3.05 lakh crore to Rs 3.85 crore 2022-23. In addition, defence pension of Rs 1.20 lakh crore. Defence allocation at over Rs 5 lakh crore is the single largest item of spending in the Budget. Yet it is the least noticed, much less discussed. An aspect that deserves to be pointed out is the policy focus in the Budget on increasing the share of indigenous production in the procurement. The indigenous production in defence capital procurement has been increased from 58% to 68%. This is a major step to advance long term national security and also leverage on defence production for jobs and technology development as also exports. The Modi regime has been growing the domestic defence industry for seven years. Had it not focused on indigenous production and procurement, the country would not have been able to export Brahmos missiles for $600 million to the Philippines. 

2047 – aiming long  
The Budget aims long into the future, with a helicopter view. It lays the foundation to turn national governance, integrating the Central and state government functions for common good, capturing the entire national physical, economic, financial, technological domains in one large national computer. If this massive digitisation agenda is achieved, it will put an end to most of the evils, including leaks in the economy, in government spending and stop corruption that damages the nation’s physical and economic security, besides impairing national political morality. This would not have been easy to achieve but for the monumental steps taken by the Modi government like the 45 crore Jan-Dhan Yojana bank accounts, direct benefit transfer and Mudra credit. And nothing would have been possible but for the huge political cost it incurred in forcing the much maligned demonetisation. The demonetisation, which introduced and habituated people and the system to digital financial life and formalised the economy, in retrospect instituted the biggest intangible asset of the nation – formal and digital economy. It helped dramatically to increase the share of the formal economy. According to an SBI study, the informal economy. which was 52% before demonetisation is down to some 15-20%. That is the foundation on which the Modi government is launching the ambitious India 2047 Project in this Budget. In this sense, this is not just a Budget for a year but one that transcends governments – for any future government to continue to work on. In sum, Budget 2022-23, which transforms normal narratives, is a huge turning point for future India.

In the early 1990s, Francis Fukuyama proclaimed that with the liberal democracy and the free market economy of the West finally emerging as a one-size-fits-all model for all nations, all conflicts that were the source of history had ended. That became the “moolmantra” of globalisation. Fukuyama ambitiously saw the convergence of the conflicting opposites — Free Market and Liberal State with Communism and Stateless Marxism — as the end of history leading to the perfect society-State envisioned by Hegel, the 18th century German philosopher. How? It calls for a recall of the short socio-political history since Fukuyama wrote his thesis.

Faking “End of history”
Hegel viewed human history as a continuous struggle between opposing ideas till all conflicts get synthesised finally into the perfect State. Karl Marx adopted the Hegelian process to understand the historic struggle of the human race from slavery to feudalism and to capitalism, and concluded that the Hegelian perfect State would be Stateless communism. Fukuyama made one small change to Karl Marx and said that the perfect State would be the Stateless free market, nicknamed globalisation. With the title of his book End of History itself declaring that the history of conflicts had ended, Fukuyama proclaimed that the Hegelian goal of a perfect nation-state was almost at hand. Through the attractive package of globalisation that assured prosperity for all, the West made the Rest believe that with the end of cold war, all conflicts had ended and the naive world believed it. But the short 30-year history since the prophecy on the end of history shows that neither could communism that Marx held out as the only way for the future to obliterate the past history, nor could the free market capitalism that was held out as the highway for the future, forget it. The Ukraine war has exploded the myth that the history of conflicts had ended or could ever end. It proves that the human propensity for conflict is so inherent that no ideology can subside or subsume it. The power of history to return to run over the human race is clearly unstoppable. The promise held out by the West, particularly the US, that the cold war was over was false, intended to fake the end of history. Coming to the real world in recent history, the continuation of the NATO alliance was itself a remnant of the cold war. But, Russia had ignored it. With the eastward expansion of the NATO alliance from the late 1990s, bringing in some 15 countries into it, Putin clearly saw the embers of cold war beneath the US moves. Russia had truthfully moved away from the cold war psyche in the 1990s, but the US did not. This explains what created the Vladimir Putin we see today. Here is a brief recall of how history did it.

Having pushed Ukraine into war, the US does not know how to save it. Having started it, Russia does not know where to end it. Having been pushed into the war, Ukraine does not know how to come out of it. It accuses its adversary Russia saying it is an invader and charges that its friends are betrayers. The UN Security Council keeps on meeting without any result. The global TV network for which the war is a reality show, a boon, keeps demonising Russia and valourising Ukraine. What the desperate Ukraine needs is a ceasefire. It is running from pillar to post — from India to Turkey to France, to Israel, to Japan — pleading with them to talk to Putin for a ceasefire. Everyone is talking to everyone else.

But Biden is not talking to Putin and Putin is not talking to Zelenskyy. This is the sad state of the efforts to stop the war. Poor Zelenskyy. What he is now saying to end the war — that we will not apply to join NATO, we will remain neutral — had he said that before, the war would not have started. Russia has staked everything – its goodwill, its economy and its last atom bomb – like a jihadi, making the West shudder to think of taking it head on. But the war is bound to end. When is the only question. When it does end, Russia would have got all that it wanted and Ukraine would have given all that it had denied. And the West would have realised and the world would have known how needless the war was. But, what kind of world will the pointless war leave behind?

A world of distrust
The worst outcome of the Ukraine war is that it has shown that anything and everything can be politicised and weaponised — from financial transaction systems like SWIFT, to banks, private companies like Google to civilian airspace. SWIFT is a high security neutral financial network created by an NGO and used by 11,000 financial institutions in 200 countries. By jamming this critical network, the Ukraine war has destroyed the most basic of mutual trust among nations. Take India. The share of Google in Indian email accounts is 62 per cent. Were India to fall foul of the West, the entire country can be brought to a halt by Google. Each nation or group of nations will now look for alternatives.

Another message is that even Switzerland, which remained neutral in the two world wars, can’t remain neutral in a West vs others scenario. A telling message of the Ukraine war is that no country can trust even the global commons. It leaves behind a world of distrust. It will increasingly force each nation to be on its own — atmanirbhar being the Indian idiom for it, the very antithesis of globalisation. An alternative to SWIFT is already underway with some 63 central banks collaborating on a new payments system.

US leadership dented
The Ukraine war seems to have dented the US global leadership in more than one sense. First, it has delivered the most telling message that the US can’t protect its own protégé. Next, that it had to solicit a virtual meeting between Biden and Xi Jinping (XJP) to get China to the US side or to end the war itself, exposed its weakness. Donald Trump would perhaps have handled Russia and Ukraine differently, not allowed China to be the proverbial monkey between two tigers, the US and Russia.

Anyway the two-hour talk Biden had with XJP did not go well for him. XJP reportedly snubbed Biden saying “those who tied the bell to the tiger must untie it,” clearly blaming NATO for the war. XJP used the talk to advance China’s claim to be equal to the US, saying they should jointly shoulder “international responsibilities” for world peace and tranquility. According to a Chinese report, XJP seems to have said that one hand cannot clap, suggesting that NATO should have a dialogue with Putin and address his security concerns, implying NATO expansion as the issue. XJP, of course, has also spoken in support of the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states. He seems to have insisted on bringing the China-US ties under turmoil over a host of issues, including Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Tibet, on “right track” — something completely beyond the agenda of Biden on that day. 

The US media had reported that Biden threatened XJP. On the contrary, he seems to have got snubbed. Biden’s effort to wean China away from Russia has failed at the minimum. If this is what the US got from China, The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia and the UAE declined calls from Biden to ease oil prices unless the US supported them in Yemen and elsewhere. Arab allies of the US have refused to toe its line. Israel did criticise the Russian attack but its stand was so nuanced as not to take the side of the West. Turkey’s position is identical to Israel’s.

Al-Jazeera even sees a strong alliance between Russia and UAE. Another collateral setback to the US is Syrian president Assad’s visit (after 11 years) to UAE about which the US could only lament that it was “disappointed and troubled”. Syria and Russia are close. On top of it all, Saudi Arabia, whose oil has been priced in US dollars for five decades, is considering pricing it in Yuan for sales to China. One more important development. The Chinese foreign minister was invited for the first time to the meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. These are not ordinary developments. The Ukraine war has undoubtedly eroded US influence over even its allies.

China’s Taiwan angle
China seems to have gained far more than it has invested in Ukraine. By subtly encouraging the US vs Russia scenario in Ukraine, China had ensured that the focus of the Biden regime was more on Russia and Ukraine and less on containing China. Being surreptitiously privy to and supporting Russia on Ukraine action, Beijing has gained an IOU from Russia if in future it has to move on Taiwan. XJP’s firm and equal dealing with Biden has dented the US capacity to confront China on Taiwan. If Biden had secretly conceded more to XJP on Taiwan as some reports say, China would have hit a jackpot.

Despite that, if the US had drawn a blank with XJP, it would have been a disaster for Biden. China’s Ukraine strategy seems intended to advance its efforts to grab Taiwan – its greatest ambition and top most priority of XJP. The Ukraine war has exposed the limitations of the US and the West to step in to save its non-formal ally. The Taiwan Relations Act only ensures defence supplies by the US to Taiwan and nothing further. In comparison to Ukraine, which the US recognises as an independent nation, Taiwan’s status is much inferior. If China makes a decisive move against Taiwan, the US could do very little given its show in Ukraine — to say nothing of the Afghanistan debacle.

India’s growing stature
Despite being part of Quad and with deep strategic partnership with the US, India’s neutrality, with an implicit pro-Russian tilt, was a calculated geopolitical risk India took at the very start of the Ukraine war. Subsequent developments not only won understanding but also acclaim for it. A displeased America had to concede India was an exception among its allies. Surprisingly, amid the raging Ukraine war New Delhi became the centre of hyper diplomatic activity. Scott Morrison, the Prime Minister of Australia, a Quad constituent, had a virtual meeting with the Indian Prime Minister, promised investments and said that the Quad nations understood India on Ukraine. Fumio Kishida, Prime Minister of Japan, another Quad member, paid his first official visit abroad to India. And keeping aside the differences between the two on Ukraine, he signed six strategic agreements and committed to investing $42 billion in the next five years. The Greek foreign minister was in Delhi on March 22 and 23 and the Oman foreign affairs minister was in Delhi for two full days, March 23 and 24. 

China and India have had border clashes for the last two years. Surprisingly, its foreign minister Wang Yi is visiting Delhi on March 25 — a significant development. India’s independent position on Ukraine is itself a message to China that India would withstand US pressure. If it can lead to some trust and understanding between China and India on the borders, that can pave the way for an informal Russia-China-India axis for future. Naftali Bennett, the Prime Minister of Israel, a US ally, is making a four-day long visit to India in April first week at the invitation of “his friend” Indian Prime Minister Modi. India is boldly going ahead with the purchase of Russian oil amid US sanctions on Russia.

Though India has not voted for Russia, it has taken a firm position on the discovery of a bio-weapon facility in Ukraine funded by America. And America, despite loosely calling India shaky on the Ukraine war, has not applied the CAATSA law to stop the sale of Russia’s missile system to India. Undoubtedly, the Ukraine war diplomacy has shown India’s rising stature. The greatest tribute to India’s policies came from the most unlikely of quarters, Pakistan. Praising India’s foreign policy as free and independent, Prime Minister Imran Khan said, “India is allied with America and is part of the Quad alliance and yet it is neutral on Ukraine, imports oil from Russia despite US sanctions, because its policy is oriented to the betterment of its own people.”

Shift away from the dollar?
The war’s collateral impact may be on the US dollar and the global financial order itself. With the dollar-based globalisation already under stress, the role of the greenback in the global financial system may decline. The dollar power enabled dominance of the financial economy over the real economy, particularly the commodity economy. The US sanctions which are bound to affect the Russian oil sale, may also affect the US dollar. 

The strength of the US dollar depended, said two Harvard economists in 2006, not on the laws of economics but on the laws of physics, which said a dark matter sustains the universe. The dark matter which sustains the dollar value, they said, is the insurance that the US system and geopolitical power provides to the dollar. That insurance is what is under stress since 2008. With the rise of Asia and China, the US dollar cannot be said to continue to have the same insurance value. The share of USD in the global forex reserves has touched a 25-year low of about 59 per cent.

If important nations shift to their own fiat currency based trade like the Rupee-Ruble arrangement between India and Russia and if an alternative to SWIFT can be found, the move away from dollar can accelerate. For instance, if India and China begin paying for their trade in their fiat currencies rated to the US dollar and at the year-end pay the net in terms of the dollar, the overall demand for the dollar will contract rapidly. It is the demand for the dollar that sustains its value. These kinds of developments post the Ukraine war can have a far reaching impact.

To end, in just weeks the needless Ukraine eruption has disrupted the world as if forever. Thanks to it, the post-cold war world already stands on its head — disrupting old relations, making new ones, undermining existing power centres, creating new, multiple influence centres. Its impact will keep unfolding for a long time.

By S Gurumurthy

The punishing, tiring 16-year long pursuit to jail the culprits, the Maran brothers of Sun TV fame, in the infamous telephone exchange fraud case exposed 10 years back, is still on.

And it is seemingly unending. The case of the fraud discovered in 2007, kept buried till 2011, filed in 2016, and blocked several times, has hit a roadblock again.

The buccaneers first used their huge political, media and financial clout and stalled the CBI from filing a first information report (FIR).

After the FIR was finally filed, the Marans began misusing the judicial process itself to delay the trial. After crossing all impediments, with the trial in its last lap, a critical judicial delay seems to open an escape route for them now.

A long recall is needed to know how all efforts to catch the culprits may get frustrated after all. 

Case in Supreme Court for the sixth time

It was indeed a daring crime. Dayanidhi Maran as telecom minister got installed in his twin homes in Chennai, a secret and un-billable telephone exchange outside the system, that had 756 multimedia high-speed telephone lines.

A fraud on his own ministry and government, it was also a national security risk to keep a huge phone system off the record. Uncovered by an honest CBI Inspector in 2007, the fraud lay deep in the UPA government, till The New Indian Express exposed it in 2011, causing the explosive exit of Dayanidhi from the ministry. But, with their pronounced media might, political clout and money power, the Marans — with whose names echo the infamous Italian politician Silvio Berlusconi — thwarted the probe even after the exposure. 

That forced this writer to petition the Supreme Court in 2013 to direct the CBI to file an FIR. Cornered, the CBI had to — six years after it had itself found out the fraud and three years after the NIE exposed it.

The CBI chargesheeted the Marans in 2016. But they began an unending procession of vexatious proxy litigations to thwart the trial. They took the case to the highest court four times – once in 2015, twice in 2018, and once in 2019. 

Finally the trial began. Again they faked litigation to stop the CBI from further probing the case and adding Sun TV, the beneficiary of fraud, as an accused, which is its right in law.

That landed the case again in March last – for the sixth time in eight years – in the highest court where it is pending for listing for nine months.

Here is the frustrating story of the decade long gruelling chase to bring the culprits to book, and where it stands now. 

Delay, by political clout

The daring CBI Inspector S B Shankar who uncovered the fraud was a simple man. He lived in a single bedroom apartment in Rajaji Bhavan in Besant Nagar in Chennai, cooking his own food, washing the utensils.

He rode on his rickety scooter everyday to the CBI office in Shastri Bhavan, 11 km away. Direct and indirect threats did not deter him. 

Later, in an act of revenge, a disgraceful attempt by some pliant CBI officers to fake a case of a lapse in some investigation to fix the honest inspector failed miserably.

Shankar had unearthed four facts which firmly fixed the Marans.

One, misusing his position as telecom minister Dayanidhi got installed off the record some 400 high-speed telephone lines in his new palatial home with almost similar numbers in his old ancestral house.

Two, all lines were kept fraudulently in the name of the Chief General Manager, Chennai Telephones, outside the billing system and so were free of cost.

Three, the 400 high-speed lines installed in the new home were connected by underground cable to the Sun TV network a short distance away and used for its show business. Four, the fraudulent phone system had caused a loss of Rs 440 crore to the public. 

The NIE brought out Shankar’s report on June 2, 2011, in an exposure headlined ‘Minister Steals a Telephone Exchange and Loots BSNL.’

The next day, blatantly lying he had only one line, not hundreds, Maran threatened the NIE with a damage suit for `10 crore. Challenging him to file it, the NIE wrote, ‘Welcome Mr Maran.’

Four days later, the NIE finally nailed Maran’s lies by publishing the photocopy of BSNL file notings, which established the existence of the fraudulent home telephone exchange and shut his mouth. 

With the CBI still unmoving, this writer mailed all evidence to the then CBI director A P Singh on 15.12.2012 and asked him to file an FIR.

Being of questionable integrity, which got exposed in the aftermath of the 2G spectrum case, he did not even acknowledge the mail.

This writer met other CBI officials and briefed them, but to no avail. Only after a writ plea in the Supreme Court did the CBI file the FIR. By then, the Marans’ political clout had delayed it by more than six years.

Delay, by vexatious cases

The CBI began hesitantly, gathered pace, moved and got Dayanidhi Maran’s anticipatory bail cancelled by the High Court in August 2015.

Maran forthwith moved the Supreme Court, got his arrest stayed and avoided custodial interrogation that is so necessary for the CBI to get at the truth.

Finally, after probing with its hands tied, the CBI filed a less than complete chargesheet in end-2016.

The Marans had other plans. Through proxies, they sought discharge by the trial court. By a perverse order in March 2018, the trial judge obliged them. Marans threw cocktails and abused the NIE and this writer in the vilest terms. But the joy they bought was short lived.

Bad for them, the CBI petition to overthrow the trial court order came before an upright, courageous judge, Justice Jayachandran.

His aroused judicial conscience exploded on the trial court. Justice Jayachandran who saw “error, illegality and perversity all over the trial court order” called it “perverse” more than once in his judgment.

The dictionary meaning of perverse is “turning away from what is right or good: corrupt”.

But despite the resounding slap, the Marans wouldn’t give up. Through proxies again, they headed to the Supreme Court, which threw them out in July 2018. The trial started in August.

In September again, the proxies moved the High Court, which showed them the door. They moved the highest court again in November. It bundled them out in January 2019.

Trial commenced again in March 2019. The proxies again challenged it in the High Court, which rejected it. They again moved the SC, which too closed the gate.

While all these proxy efforts failed except to delay, the present proxy effort might not just stop at delaying the case, but help the buccaneers escape altogether.

Paradox – further probe shut, Sun TV out, but trial on

The CBI, which had not done a complete investigation, began probing for further evidence for which it had undisputed right in law.

Headed by an honest director, the CBI had made an application to the trial court to probe further, to gather more evidence and to add Sun TV as accused – first wrongly kept out by the CBI thanks to Marans’ clout.

Marans’ proxies argued that as the CBI could not produce further evidence under the law, no further probe was needed.

But noting that more evidence could not be produced without probe, and further investigation was needed to add Sun TV as accused, the trial judge allowed CBI’s plea in a reasoned 26-page order in January last. Panicked, the Marans forthwith moved the High Court.

Strangely, the High Court ordered that further evidence might be produced during the trial but further probe was not needed.

The result was a total paradox – further probe is shut, Sun TV is out, but the trial should go on even if the CBI moved the Supreme Court.

The CBI rushed to the top court quickly against the paradoxical order, to get approval for its probe to add Sun TV as accused.

But nine months have passed and the case has not even been listed by the registry for hearing. Meanwhile, the trial is going on in Chennai.

The Marans who were trying to stop the trial earlier have begun furiously expediting trial without further probe and without Sun TV being added as accused.

The CBI desperately needs the case listed in the SC to get further probe okayed, add Sun TV as accused and to stop the trial till then. But the registry seems unmoving. 

Many commercial litigations filed later have been heard and disposed of. Being in power in Tamil Nadu, the Marans are racing to close the trial before the top court takes up the case.

If they succeed — they will if the CBI petition before the SC is not listed and heard — Sun TV will escape prosecution and the Marans might escape going to jail. Will judicial delay finally allow the Marans and Sun TV to escape?

S. Gurumurthy,Newindpress

April 29 2008

The LTTE suicide squad did plan and eliminate Rajiv Gandhi. But, why did the LTTE do it? Was there a larger conspiracy that extended beyond the LTTE as the strike force?

Was the LTTE the author of the crime or the mercenary for some one else or for some purpose that yielded some benefit to it? These questions persisted even after the actual assassins were brought to book.

The Narasimha Rao government appointed the Jain Commission to go into the conspiracy angle to the murder.In its interim report the commission did exceedingly good work to bring on record evidence about the political forces involved in promoting the LTTE in Tamil Nadu that made the crime possible.

Yet it made a mockery of its main work, the conspiracy angle. It floated dubious and wild theories, involving Mossad! CIA! Besides adding confusion, it ended up trivialising a very serious exercise. This also robbed the commission of its credibility.

As the commission’s final report proved a flop, the Vajpayee government appointed a Multi- Disciplinary Monitoring Agency (MDMA) in 1998 to unearth the conspiracy angle.

But the person who first demanded, but, ultimately made, investigation into the conspiracy to murder Rajiv Gandhi irrelevant was none other than his widow Sonia Gandhi.

Her attitude to the investigation and suspected actors in the murder dramatically changed. Her conduct in 1997 when she was working to enter active politics was a stark contrast to her attitude after taking over the congress leadership on the Jain Commission issue.

In 1997, she demanded that the DMK which, the Jain commission had said, was part of the conspiracy, be sacked as a partner of the UF alliance and pulled down the government when the demand was not met. Her party insisted the entire facts about the conspiracy be investigated and revealed.

Addressing a meeting at Amethi, Sonia hinted that the DMK was a fan of the LTTE and charged that those who doubted the Jain commission report were diverting the attention from the investigation into the conspiracy to murder Rajiv and demanded that the probe be completed expeditiously (Indian Express 2.2.1998).

But, once she took over the party leadership, she not only ceased to evince any interest in pursuing the Rajiv Gandhi murder conspiracy, but also began allying with the alleged conspirators themselves.

The developments, put together, reveal a shocking picture.The year after taking over the Congress, Sonia Gandhi makes a secret move.

In the year 1999, she told then President Dr K R Narayanan privately that ‘neither she nor her son and daughter wanted any of the four convicts’ sentenced to death for Rajiv’s assassination ‘to be hanged’, and pleaded that no child should be orphaned by an act of the State.

Noted the Indian Express (Nov 20, 1999) that before her plea for mercy to the Rajiv killers the Congress party was the leading opponent of mercy to them. This silenced the party once and for all.

What transpired at her private meeting with the President was revealed not by Sonia, but by Mohini Giri (the former chairperson of the National Women’s Commission) and on that basis Nalini’s death sentence was commuted to life. (Frontline Nov 5-18, 2005).

Then, in February 2004, there were reports, editorially commented by the Island newspaper in Colombo on Feb 20, 2004, that Eduardo Faleiro, her emissary, had a secret meeting with the LTTE chief Prabhakaran at Killinochi. Island had also referred to reports that Sonia’s mother Ms Paula Maino had met Anton Balasingham, LTTE’s point man in London, in connection with the electoral alliance between the DMK and the Congress. While Eduardo Faleiro at least made a feeble attempt to deny the meeting, Paulo Maino would not even deny that.Third, the Paulo Maino meeting preceded, and the Faleiro meeting succeeded, the unbelievable U-turn of Sonia Gandhi to forge alliance with the DMK which was accused by her own party in 1997 of being part of the conspiracy to murder her husband. The DMK-Congress alliance seems to have been agreed upon sometime in December 2003. In January 2004, Sonia met the DMK chief and concretised the alliance.

The coming together of one of the alleged conspirators and the victim of the conspiracy made a mockery of any further investigation into Rajiv Gandhi murder.

For the last four years there is not a single word spoken by Sonia on pursuing the Rajiv Gandhi murderers and on unearthing the conspiracy or for the extradition of Prabhakaran or Pottu Amman.

This is despite the fact that, when, on April 10, 2002, Prabhakaran met the press at Killinochi, he did not even deny that LTTE was involved in Rajiv assassination.

Fourth, the LTTE too responded favourably to signals from Sonia that she was not against LTTE.

On January 27, 2006, Anton Balasingham, told an Indian TV news channel that the Rajiv killing was ‘monumental tragedy’ and asked the people of India to be ‘magnanimous to put the past behind’ and deal with the LTTE.

Fifth, Sonia did not object to the inclusion of the DMK woman MP in whose house Sivarasan the main killer of Rajiv Gandhi had stayed for which she was detained under the TADA, as a minister in the UPA government.

Sixth, the MDMA which was appointed by the NDA government after Sonia rejected the Action Taken Report on the Jain Commission, has virtually become defunct under the UPA regime.

Since 2004, she has not uttered a single word asking what the MDMA is doing.

And finally now in March 2008, Priyanka Vadra, Sonia’s daughter makes a secret visit to Vellore jail and meets the first accused in the murder of Rajiv, for over an hour.

Media reports say that they sat by each other’s side, cried and professed goodwill towards each other! No one knows what transpired between them. The meeting clearly illegal, looks almost a conspiracy, would have remained a secret had the media not exposed it.

Priyanka said that neither Sonia nor Rahul or Priyanka believe in hate or anger, and that the visit was her way of coming to terms with the Rajiv Gandhi murder.

Moral high ground seems to be a cover for undisclosed political strategies. But where was this high moral ground when Sonia angrily pulled down the UF government on the ground that DMK, a suspected co-conspirator with LTTE, was part of the alliance?

Is Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination a personal affair between the Sonia Gandhi family and the LTTE for the former to punish or pardon the latter?

LTTE has neither confessed nor regretted its action for the Gandhis to pardon. The LTTE is even today unrepenting.

The prosecution case is that the LTTE supremo decided to avenge Rajiv Gandhi for sending IPKF to Sri Lanka and betraying the LTTE. But that was no personal decision of Rajiv Gandhi. The assassination was an act against the state of India.

This is how it should be seen and pursued. Neither Sonia nor Priyanka nor the Congress has the right to pardon the criminals who have challenged the sovereignty of India.